- The E3G think tank's "End of the Oil Age" report names Libya among the countries most exposed to a global demand shift that could trigger financial crises, political instability and conflict if producers fail to prepare.
Recent reports point to a "global shift" away from oil that will not be limited to its economic and environmental dimensions, but could also generate financial crises and unrest linked to politics, migration and conflict, if producer countries fail to prepare for this decline.
Countries such as Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Iran, Iraq and Libya stand out as among the most at risk, due to their heavy reliance on oil revenue to finance budgets and public services, combined with weak economic diversification and a lack of sufficient capital to absorb the shock, according to the "End of the Oil Age" report published by E3G, a research organisation focused on climate, energy and geopolitics.
The World Bank says global demand growth for oil is slowing, with demand expected to rise by only around 0.7 million barrels a day in 2025 and 2026 — roughly half the average increase seen before the Covid-19 pandemic — amid declining oil intensity and the spread of electric vehicles.
This does not mean the world will stop using oil any time soon, but the increasingly pressing question is: what will happen to countries that depend on oil revenue once global demand begins to decline?